Dynamics in the Horn of Africa region and the interests of the Republic of Turkey

The analytical paper is dedicated to analyzing the geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa region. The strategic importance of Somalia as a key country and Turkey’s interest in expanding its presence in the region were assessed.

Conclusions:

  1. Somalia holds geostrategic importance as a country with access to key maritime trade routes to the Sues canalAdditionally, the country’s natural resources, including oil and gas deposits, further enhance its significance for external players. Somalia serves as a vital partner for global economies and has the potential to become a hub for transit trade and energy supplies.

  2. Turkey has shown active interest in Somalia due to its strategic geographic location, natural resources, and economic potential. Ankara aims to increase its influence in the region through soft power, humanitarian aid, investments in infrastructure projects, and peacekeeping efforts.

  3. Influence over Somalia equates to influence over the entire Horn of Africa region. Recognizing this, Turkey has been steadily expanding its presence in Somalia through defense cooperation, including investments in developing local military forces, which bolsters its leverage over the country's political and security situation as well as the broader region.

In recent years, the Horn of Africa has become an arena for intense geopolitical competition, with Somalia at its center. Despite prolonged internal instability, the country remains a critical focal point for the security and economic interests of both global and regional players. Somalia's growing strategic importance is attributed to its geographic location, abundant natural resources, and capacity to impact trade routes.

 

          Geostrategic importance of Somalia and the current security situation in the Horn of Africa region

Somalia occupies a crucial position at the crossroads of key trade routes between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, granting it a pivotal role in international trade. Its location provides access to one of the busiest maritime corridors connecting Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and East Africa. Somalia's proximity to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — a chokepoint for a significant portion of global oil and cargo shipments — further underscores its importance.

In addition to its geographic advantages, Somalia possesses substantial natural resources, including underexplored hydrocarbons. The potential for mineral extraction and fishing also adds to its economic value. Recent discoveries of oil and gas deposits in Somalia's coastal waters have drawn investments and interest from countries such as China, Turkey, and Gulf states. However, Somalia has endured decades of internal conflict, weakening central authority and stability. This ongoing instability adversely affects the security landscape of East Africa.

Somalia shares land borders with Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia, each of which is involved in the Somali conflict and counter-terrorism efforts, particularly against the Salafi group Al-Shabaab. Ethiopia, with the strongest military in the Horn of Africa [1], takes primary responsibility for maintaining peace, as Somalia’s instability and the spread of terrorism pose risks to all neighboring states. Ethiopia is also invested in Somalia's stability to ensure economic and transportation integration in the region. As a landlocked country, Ethiopia relies on Somalia as a crucial trade partner, particularly for access to Somali ports to facilitate external trade.

Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia are complicated by historical factors rooted in past conflicts and disputes. A major source of tension is the long-standing territorial dispute over the Ogaden region, which was the subject of the Ogaden War (1977–1978), when Somalia attempted to seize Ethiopian territory. These historical grievances continue to impact diplomatic and security relations between the two nations.

Another important factor is Ethiopia’s support for Somaliland’s independence. Although Somaliland is a self-proclaimed republic, it enjoys relative stability compared to the rest of Somalia, making it a valuable partner for Ethiopia in ensuring security along its southern borders. Somaliland effectively serves as a buffer zone between Ethiopia and the volatile parts of Somalia, helping mitigate risks related to terrorism and extremism, such as Al-Shabaab’s activities.

Economically, Ethiopia is also motivated to support Somaliland. The region hosts significant transport and trade routes, including the Port of Berbera, which can benefit Ethiopia's economy by providing access to critical maritime corridors and reducing dependence on ports in neighboring countries, such as Kenya.

On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through the Port of Berbera for 50 years in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland's independence. This agreement sparked protests from the Somali government, which accused Ethiopia of violating Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, prompting Somalia to recall its ambassador from Addis Ababa for consultations. The deal also drew criticism from other countries and international organizations.

 

          Interests of Extra-Regional Players: Turkey

Turkey is an active player in the region. In 1998, the Turkish government launched the African Initiative Policy, which laid the foundation for the country’s growing influence, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa [2]. In 2005, declared the Year of Africa”, Turkey made a significant move by becoming an observer member of the African Union (AU). With the AU recognizing Turkey as a strategic partner by 2008, its influence and cooperation with Africa grew significantly.

Several reasons drive Turkeys active foreign policy in Africa. First, it seeks to diversify its international connections to enhance its global standing as a country pursuing an independent geopolitical course (unlike the 20th century, when Turkish foreign policy largely aligned with the U.S. and NATO). Two other major reasons are the economic expansion of Turkish companies into the African continent and the development of military cooperation with African nations, aligning with Turkey's declared goal of becoming a global power.

Turkey has chosen Somalia as a key partner to expand its presence in the Horn of Africa region due to a combination of geostrategic and economic factors. Historically, Somalias security situation limited international presence by extra-regional states, enabling Turkey to enter the region with virtually no competition. Ankara effectively utilized soft power and religious factors to build trust and foster partnerships. Seeking to strengthen its influence, Turkey actively provides humanitarian aid and invests in infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

Somalias economic potential is also of interest to Turkey. Untapped natural resources, such as oil and gas, attract Turkish companies that are already involved in resource exploration. An agreement between Somalia and Turkey allows for oil and gas exploration within Somalia’s exclusive economic zone and includes provisions for protecting Somalias territorial waters. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has stated that Turkish Petroleum holds licenses for three blocks covering 5,000 square kilometers in Somali waters, where the Oruc Reis vessel will conduct 3D seismic surveys [3]. In this context, Ankara has considered deploying naval ships to Somalias coast to escort research vessels.

One of the key aspects of Turkey’s interest in Somalia is military cooperation. In 2017, Turkey opened its largest overseas military base, Camp TURKSOM, in Mogadishu. Built at a cost of $50 million and covering an area of 4 square kilometers, the base trains approximately 1,500 Somali soldiers at a time.

In February 2024, Ankara and Mogadishu signed a comprehensive maritime security and defense agreement that recognizes the Turkish Armed Forces as a partner in ensuring Somalias maritime security for the next decade. Under the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Turkey will modernize, equip, and train the Somali Navy, receiving 30% of revenues from activities in Somalias economic zone.

Turkey is also reportedly negotiating the establishment of a ballistic missile testing ground and a spaceport in Somalia. Ankaras ballistic missile program requires long-range testing, and Somalias strategic location on the eastern edge of Africa provides an ideal launch site toward the Indian Ocean [4]. Additionally, Somalias proximity to the equator makes it a suitable location for a spaceport, as launches near the equator can increase the range and efficiency of space rockets. A 2015 defense industry cooperation agreement between the two countries allows for joint military equipment production projects.

Turkey actively leverages its partnership with Somalia to enhance its image as a peacekeeper on the international stage. In December 2024, Ankara mediated an agreement that resolved relations between Somalia and Ethiopia. According to the agreement, Somalia and Ethiopia reaffirmed each others sovereignty, unity, independence, and territorial integrity. The parties also recognized the potential mutual benefits of ensuring Ethiopias guaranteed access to the sea and Somali waters without compromising Somalias territorial integrity. The two nations are now set to discuss mutually beneficial commercial arrangements, including contracts, leases, and other agreements that would allow Ethiopia to maintain reliable, safe, and sustainable access to Somali waters under Somalias sovereign authority”. Technical negotiations, facilitated by Turkey, are scheduled to begin in late February 2025 and conclude by mid-summer.

Turkeys presence in Africa, particularly in Somalia, has grown significantly amidst rising anti-Western sentiments and geopolitical shifts in the region. Following the 2023 coup in Niger and the de facto end of the Françafrique era, Turkey has been actively filling the vacuum left by the weakening influence of France and other Western powers. In this context, Turkey not only competes with Western nations but also engages in rivalry with China and Gulf monarchies, which are also increasing their activities in Africa. Ankara seeks to position itself as a strategic partner offering not only economic cooperation and security assistance but also an alternative to Western influence in the region. Against the backdrop of global political changes, Turkey is betting on multilateral relations, offering African countries a more balanced and independent foreign policy orientation.

 

          Further developments

The agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, brokered by Turkey, has partially improved bilateral relations and reduced the immediate risk of military escalation, which is an important step towards stabilizing the situation in the region. However, the document, which is due to be finalized in spring 2025, does not automatically resolve a number of key technical issues. In particular, the issue of a previous agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which provided for the potential recognition of Somalilands independence in exchange for Ethiopias access to the port of Berbera, remains open. This aspect could pose significant challenges to the implementation of the new agreement if the parties do not find a compromise solution. In addition, the security situation remains tense due to the activities of terrorist groups, which continue to pose a threat to stability in East Africa. Despite efforts to curb terrorist activities, serious risks of new outbreaks of violence remain. This requires constant attention from both the African Union and international organizations, in particular the UN.

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[1] https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?co…

[2] https://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkiye-africa-relations.en.mfa

[3] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/somali-president-welcomes-turkiyes-oruc-reis-seismic-vessel-for-oil-gas-exploration/3374805

[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/turkey-wants-to-build-a-spacecraft-launchpad-in-somalia

 

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